Montgomery County, November 5 – The November 6, 2018, General Election brings to a close an important election cycle for Montgomery County, Texas, and very likely the United States of America. Montgomery County will take some important first steps towards substantial reductions in government spending and becoming the national example of a local community that can bring its County government corruption to an end, reform spending and local taxation, and usher in an era of ethics under conservative principles of reform.
The predictions below reveal the importance of voter turnout.
Montgomery County, one of the most conservative communities in the United States, has every opportunity to show other Americans how conservatives can reform government spending, reduce government largesse, and restore freedom. While electoral contests across America will not follow those trends, already the electoral data reveal that Republican leaning voters in Montgomery County are voting at approximately a twelve percent (12%) higher turnout rate than Republican leaning voters across the State of Texas.
What has changed in Montgomery County to cause that significant turnout increase among conservative Republicans even in comparison to other Texas counties? Clearly, the fact that the Montgomery County Republican Party has invigorated itself by spreading the authority among the grassroots, which has radically boosted volunteerism, excitement, and the fervor of campaign activities. For the first time in 54 years, the Montgomery County Republican Party has sent mailers to Republican voters, led organized block-walk efforts on behalf of all candidates who are the Republican Nominees, operated a sophisticated 21st century telephone bank, and even offered some fun social events to keep volunteer spirits soaring.
Local predictions should fill readers with great optimism. Even if a reader lives outside of Montgomery County, the great impact that the invigorated Republican Party has had shows that there is much hope in every community in Texas and across the nation in the future. Needless to say, the amazing leadership of Party Vice Chairman Reagan Reed, Victory 2018 Steering Committee Chairman Dale Inman, and Victory 2018 Steering Committee Treasurer Kelli Cook have constituted startling boosts for Republican candidates (even for those, such as United States Congressman Kevin Brady or Precinct 2 County Commissioner Charlie Riley, who have shown no appreciation for the efforts on their behalf.)
The theory behind the predictions
Many readers of The Golden Hammer, Montgomery County’s leading daily newspaper, are aware of the accuracy of this newspaper’s Publisher’s predictions before the November 8, 2016, Presidential Election (two months before this newspaper began to publish). The Publisher looked at statistical data from hundreds of polls, followed trends, and questioned almost every poll in the United States. The Publisher correctly called how every state in the United States eventually voted for the Trump-Clinton race with the exception of Colorado.
One of the differences between the analysis of this newspaper and other organizations is that The Golden Hammer generally discounts pollsters who failed to permit respondents to assess their own likelihood to vote. Most polling firms either poll registered voters, a very unscientific and almost worthless sample, or they build their own “models” of “likely” voters, which means those firms act off of irrational assumptions and emotions to guess which voters are most likely.
Contrarily, the Survey Research Group of RAND Corporation in Monterrey, California, the same private think tank responsible for most of America’s nuclear war strategy during the Cold War, established a radically different polling technique in 1972 by which RAND and its surveyors permit respondents to rate their own likelihood to vote on a daily basis. Rather than merely asking the question, “Do you prefer Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke,” RAND’s surveyors also ask respondents to rate the likelihood that they’ll vote. Then RAND will track those same respondents through the election cycle on a daily basis. That way, the voters rate their likelihood to vote, which becomes a weighting factor in determining how much the support should count towards one candidate or another. For example:
- Eric says “I prefer Ted over Beto and it’s 91% likely that I’ll vote.” Therefore, RAND would count Eric’s vote 0.91 in favor of Ted.
- The next day Eric says, “I’ve changed my mind. I now prefer Beto over Ted and it’s 37% likely that I’ll vote.” RAND then counts Eric’s vote 0.37 in favor of Beto.
- RAND maintains daily tracking polls. Voters are provided laptop computers, on a loaner basis, so that all respondents have the opportunity to respond in the same manner every day.
In 2016, RAND Corporation did not run polls, but, instead, assigned the proprietary polling methods to other companies. None of those companies predicted that President Trump would win the election. Nevertheless, they were much closer to the actual results on a state-by-state basis than other pollsters.
The Golden Hammer looks very closely to polls that track RAND’s methodology. Unfortunately, in 2018, very few companies actually do so. Gravis Marketing out of Florida uses a similar methodology, however, although one that is not as forcefully objective as the RAND statistical method.
By looking at all of the polling date that this newspaper can obtain, we watch local trends as well as local trends that follow national trends. For example, in the Arizona Senate race, the Republican candidate has made some very stupid statements, such as calling Arizona “the meth lab of democracy.” Those types of local occurrences usually have a much larger impact on a race than do national trends. Local races do feel the impacts of national trends, however. The shooting in a Pittsburgh synagogue on October 27, 2018, has had a profound impact on voter turnout in a number of Congressional races, particularly in the northeast and midwestern United States.
Any analyst ignoring those trends – or feelings – is failing to account for major shifts in voter activity.
Montgomery County’s local races
The following are The Golden Hammer‘s predictions for races that are particularly important and feel local to Montgomery County, Texas.
Montgomery County Judge – Republican Mark Keough will win with approximately 66% of the vote.
Montgomery County Treasurer – Republican Melanie Pryor Bush will win with approximately 71% of the vote.
Montgomery County District Clerk – Republican Melisa Miller will win with approximately 71% of the vote.
Justice of the Peace, Precinct 3 – Republican Matt Beasley will win with approximately 68% of the vote.
State Representative, District 15 – Republican Steve Toth will win with approximately 65% of the vote.
State Representative, District 16 – Republican Will Metcalf will win with approximately 73% of the vote.
State Representative, District 3 – Republican Cecil Bell will win with approximately 75% of the vote.
County Commissioner, Precinct 2 – Republican Charlie Riley will win with approximately 66% of the vote.
Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District – Three RAW candidates (Spigener, Prykryl, Melder) will win with two-thirds of the vote. Bouche, Rogers, and Hardman are in multiple-candidate races and will win with between 50% and 60% of the vote in each race.
Conroe ISD – In Position 1, Inman will have the plurality in the range of 43%. Wagaman will come in second. Sanders and Hubert will win their races handily.
Woodlands Township – Boniface and Rieser will win re-election with about 71% of the vote each.
Kristin Bays, running for the 284th District Court, will win election with 100% of the vote.
The top vote-getter statewide will be Governor Greg Abbott who will win with over 60% of the vote. He will be one of the few Republicans to carry Harris County. Other statewide Republican candidates will win re-election with approximately 55% of the vote.
Texas races for the Senate and Congress
Cruz will defeat O’Rourke 54% to 46%. Congressman John Culberson will lose in the 7th Congressional District, because there has been a substantial population shift in the District to defeat him. Culberson has also been out of touch with the needs of the voters in his District.
Republicans will lose 18 seats in the United States House of Representatives and will lose the majority control in the House with the razor thin margin of 218 democrats to 217 Republicans.
In the United States House of Representatives, Congressman Don Young, the Dean of the House who has served for 45 years, will lose re-election in quirky Alaska.
The citizens of North Dakota will cast democrat Heidi Heitkamp out of office and replace her with the Republican. Many Arizona Republicans are not going to vote for McSally as a result of her offensive remarks towards Arizonans. Their undervotes will carry the democrat to a razor-thin victory. Claire McCaskill will retain her seat in Missouri. If Missouri had had early voting, McCaskill would have lost the seat.
As a result, the Republicans will retain their 51 to 49 majority in the United States Senate. RealClearPolitics calls the Senate 52 to 48 but they’re relying upon stale polling data in Missouri.
Prediction for 2020
Too much can happen with the United States economy to predict the 2020 elections yet. The democrats winning control of the United States House of Representatives will help President Trump and the Republican Party enormously in 2020.