Image: Conroe Independent School District seems eager to deceive through a deceptive demographic study to procure $807 million in bond funds.
Conroe, March 12 – In its quest to devour $807 million and burden children with a 64% tax increase as they grow into adults, the Conroe Independent School District (CISD) has engaged in deceptive demography in order to try to trick its citizens into voting in favor of the May 4, 2019, bond package referendum. CISD’s demographic study is a scam.
CISD admits that improving educational outcomes has nothing to do with the spending proposals contained with the gigantic bond package. Rather, as Superintendent Curtis Null has made clear, the entire basis of the bond package is a 2018 demographic study completed by Population and Survey Analysts (PASA), a vendor to the school district. The PASA study concluded that the school district actually does not reach a capacity problem with respect to its current schools available for students during the next 10 years. Nevertheless, the school district has proposed construction of several new schools, while claiming that the purpose of the construction, which is really nothing but bureaucratic empire building, is to meet the needs of a growing school district population.
One of the tricks which the school district and PASA utilized in the demographic study was to use the wrong schools in order to show a lower current capacity in the current schools available to Conroe ISD students. Among two of the tricks are:
- CISD and PASA didn’t include Suchma Elementary, an 1100-student school, opening in Fall 2019, in the consideration.
- CISD and PASA didn’t include Stockton Junior High School, a 1450-student school, opening in Fall 2020, in the consideration. Stockton will essentially replace Washington Junior High School, a 750-student school.
Those schools alone add 1100 students to the capacity of elementary schools and a net 700 students (1450 minutes 750 = 700) for CISD.
By adding the additional new capacity of Stockton Junior High School, the demographic study shows that the Conroe Independent School District will not reach 120% capacity for junior high school students during the next 10 years. That’s critical because Board of Trustees member Skeeter Hubert explained during a videotaped interview on September 28, 2018 that:
“We don’t schedule planning a new building or even rezoning until that capacity is 120%…We wait as long as we possibly can [to build new schools.]”
Therefore, PASA and CISD provided the following ten-year projection for CISD in the 2018 demographic study:
The current capacity of schools in CISD follows, according to PASA and CISD in the 2018 demographic study:
- EE-4th = 27,540
- 5th-6th = 12,950
- 7th-8th = 9,550
- 9th-12th = 21,040
Nevertheless, those numbers are actually incorrect for ten-year projections, because they don’t include Suchman and Stockton. With those two schools, the correct current capacity of schools in CISD follows:
- EE-4th = 28,640
- 5th-6th = 12,950
- 7th-8th = 10,250
- 9th-12th = 21,040
In other words, CISD has projected the number of students it (and PASA) expect will be attending its schools in ten years in the 2018 demographic study. Using the correct capacity of schools in CISD, the actual enrollment and percentage capacity numbers for each school level by 2028-29 are:
- EE-4th = 29,533 = 103% of capacity
- 5th-6th = 11,476 = 88% of capacity
- 7th-8th = 12,082 = 118% of capacity
- 9th-12th = 23,470 = 112% of capacity.
The bottom line is that none of the student categories justify construction of any new schools between now and 2028, other than Suchman and Stockton which are already under construction. There simply is no demographic basis for the bond, pursuant to CISD’s own 2018 demographic study.
These numbers and the school districts practices reveal a pattern of deception about which voters should be very wary, as it is obvious that the entire purpose of this massive school bond of $807 million is nothing more than to collect cash and permit the school district to proceed in whatever manner it desires to do so. The $807 million bond is nothing but a 64% tax hike, which has no demographic justification and no educational outcome justification.